The value of parental medical records for the prediction of diabetes and cardiovascular disease: a novel method for generating and incorporating family histories.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether data-driven family histories (DDFH) derived from linked EHRs of patients and their parents can improve prediction of patients' 10-year risk of diabetes and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using data from Israel's largest healthcare organization. A random sample of 200 000 subjects aged 40-60 years on the index date (January 1, 2010) was included. Subjects with insufficient history (<1 year) or insufficient follow-up (<10 years) were excluded. Two separate XGBoost models were developed-1 for diabetes and 1 for ASCVD-to predict the 10-year risk for each outcome based on data available prior to the index date of January 1, 2010. RESULTS: Overall, the study included 110 734 subject-father-mother triplets. There were 22 153 cases of diabetes (20%) and 11 715 cases of ASCVD (10.6%). The addition of parental information significantly improved prediction of diabetes risk (P < .001), but not ASCVD risk. For both outcomes, maternal medical history was more predictive than paternal medical history. A binary variable summarizing parental disease state delivered similar predictive results to the full parental EHR. DISCUSSION: The increasing availability of EHRs for multiple family generations makes DDFH possible and can assist in delivering more personalized and precise medicine to patients. Consent frameworks must be established to enable sharing of information across generations, and the results suggest that sharing the full records may not be necessary. CONCLUSION: DDFH can address limitations of patient self-reported family history, and it improves clinical predictions for some conditions, but not for all, and particularly among younger adults.

Choosing Wisely: Determining performance of unjustified imaging in a large healthcare system.

AIMS: The Choosing Wisely Campaign identifies procedures and treatments that lack clinical justification for routine use according to expert opinion and evidence-based medicine. This study describes the rates and features of two such examples over a 10-year period. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional rolling cohort study between 2008 and 2017 in Clalit Health Services, the largest healthcare delivery system in Israel, with seven main hospitals and over 4.5 million members nationwide. All adult members who visited a Clalit Emergency Department (ED), and all children members who visited a Clalit ED for abdominal pain or appendicitis were eligible to be included in this study. Our measures were routine chest radiograph (CXR) in the context of pre-admission assessment for adults and abdominal computed tomography (CT) to rule out appendicitis for children. RESULTS: Of the 3 689 869 adult visits without a clinical indication for a CXR, 9.1% or 337 058 of them received a chest radiograph. Of the 35 973 children visits for presumed appendicitis, 7.2% of them had no imaging performed, 82.3% had an ultrasound (US), 6.9% had an US followed by a CT, and 3.6% or 1293 of them received a CT. There were several independent risk factors such as BMI, hospital, sex, year and diagnosis that are associated with having imaging that is not clinically indicated. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, this study found that diagnostic imaging practices are applied inconsistently by hospital and by population. Intervention efforts should be focused on subpopulations at greatest risk to further reduce exposure to such imaging.

Analyzing admission rates for multiple ambulatory care-sensitive conditions.

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed rates of ambulatory care-sensitive condition (ACSC) admissions within a healthcare system to identify areas for intervention. STUDY DESIGN: This was a multiyear cross-sectional study using the data warehouse of Clalit Health Services (Clalit), the largest payer/provider healthcare system in Israel, with complete clinical records for more than 4 million members. All admissions from 2009 to 2014 were included in the study. Discharge diagnoses were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes. METHODS: We provide adjusted rates (per 100,000 Clalit population adjusted by age and sex to the 2005 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development population) for all admissions, by discharge diagnoses, for each year. We identify the highest adjusted rates (relative and absolute) by both catchment area and hospital affiliation (Clalit or non-Clalit). RESULTS: ACSC-related admissions made up 16.2% of all admissions for the 5 years studied, and the overall rate increased by 26.8% from 2009 to 2014. The conditions with the highest admission rates in all years and all catchment areas were pneumonia and congestive heart failure. There was extreme variation among catchment areas for hypertension-related admissions. Within the Clalit hospitals, ACSCs accounted for 20.5% of admissions; within non-Clalit hospitals, ACSCs accounted for 13.6% of admissions. CONCLUSIONS: In evaluating the rates of ACSC-related admissions, this study demonstrates the contribution of a single, longitudinal benchmark. This study also suggests that hypertension, congestive heart failure, and pneumonia may be areas for future intervention in Clalit.

Constructing data-derived family histories using electronic health records from a single healthcare delivery system.

BACKGROUND: In order to examine the potential clinical value of integrating family history information directly from the electronic health records of patients' family members, the electronic health records of individuals in Clalit Health Services, the largest payer/provider in Israel, were linked with the records of their parents. METHODS: We describe the results of a novel approach for creating data-derived family history information for 2 599 575 individuals, focusing on three chronic diseases: asthma, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes. RESULTS: In our cohort, there were 256 598 patients with asthma, 55 309 patients with CVD and 66 324 patients with diabetes. Of the people with asthma, CVD or diabetes, the percentage that also had a family history of the same disease was 22.0%, 70.8% and 70.5%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Linking individuals' health records with their data-derived family history has untapped potential for supporting diagnostic and clinical decision-making.

Translating clinical trial results into personalized recommendations by considering multiple outcomes and subjective views.

Currently, clinicians rely mostly on population-level treatment effects from RCTs, usually considering the treatment's benefits. This study proposes a process, focused on practical usability, for translating RCT data into personalized treatment recommendations that weighs benefits against harms and integrates subjective perceptions of relative severity. Intensive blood pressure treatment (IBPT) was selected as the test case to demonstrate the suggested process, which was divided into three phases: (1) Prediction models were developed using the Systolic Blood-Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) data for benefits and adverse events of IBPT. The models were externally validated using retrospective Clalit Health Services (CHS) data; (2) Predicted risk reductions and increases from these models were used to create a yes/no IBPT recommendation by calculating a severity-weighted benefit-to-harm ratio; (3) Analysis outputs were summarized in a decision support tool. Based on the individual benefit-to-harm ratios, 62 and 84% of the SPRINT and CHS populations, respectively, would theoretically be recommended IBPT. The original SPRINT trial results of significant decrease in cardiovascular outcomes following IBPT persisted only in the group that received a "yes-treatment" recommendation by the suggested process, while the rate of serious adverse events was slightly higher in the "no-treatment" recommendation group. This process can be used to translate RCT data into individualized recommendations by identifying patients for whom the treatment's benefits outweigh the harms, while considering subjective views of perceived severity of the different outcomes. The proposed approach emphasizes clinical practicality by mimicking physicians' clinical decision-making process and integrating all recommendation outputs into a usable decision support tool.

Study of Healthcare Personnel with Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses in Israel (SHIRI): study protocol.

BACKGROUND: The Study of Healthcare Personnel with Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses in Israel (SHIRI) prospectively follows a cohort of healthcare personnel (HCP) in two hospitals in Israel. SHIRI will describe the frequency of influenza virus infections among HCP, identify predictors of vaccine acceptance, examine how repeated influenza vaccination may modify immunogenicity, and evaluate influenza vaccine effectiveness in preventing influenza illness and missed work. METHODS: Cohort enrollment began in October, 2016; a second year of the study and a second wave of cohort enrollment began in June 2017. The study will run for at least 3 years and will follow approximately 2000 HCP (who are both employees and members of Clalit Health Services [CHS]) with routine direct patient contact. Eligible HCP are recruited using a stratified sampling strategy. After informed consent, participants complete a brief enrollment survey with questions about occupational responsibilities and knowledge, attitudes, and practices about influenza vaccines. Blood samples are collected at enrollment and at the end of influenza season; HCP who choose to be vaccinated contribute additional blood one month after vaccination. During the influenza season, participants receive twice-weekly short message service (SMS) messages asking them if they have acute respiratory illness or febrile illness (ARFI) symptoms. Ill participants receive follow-up SMS messages to confirm illness symptoms and duration and are asked to self-collect a nasal swab. Information on socio-economic characteristics, current and past medical conditions, medical care utilization and vaccination history is extracted from the CHS database. Information about missed work due to illness is obtained by self-report and from employee records. Respiratory specimens from self-collected nasal swabs are tested for influenza A and B viruses, respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus, and coronaviruses using validated multiplex quantitative real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assays. The hemagglutination inhibition assay will be used to detect the presence of neutralizing influenza antibodies in serum. DISCUSSION: SHIRI will expand our knowledge of the burden of respiratory viral infections among HCP and the effectiveness of current and repeated annual influenza vaccination in preventing influenza illness, medical utilization, and missed workdays among HCP who are in direct contact with patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03331991 . Registered on November 6, 2017.

Association of Bariatric Surgery Using Laparoscopic Banding, Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass, or Laparoscopic Sleeve Gastrectomy vs Usual Care Obesity Management With All-Cause Mortality.

Importance: Bariatric surgery is an effective and safe approach for weight loss and short-term improvement in metabolic disorders such as diabetes. However, studies have been limited in most settings by lack of a nonsurgical group, losses to follow-up, missing data, and small sample sizes in clinical trials and observational studies. Objective: To assess the association of 3 common types of bariatric surgery compared with nonsurgical treatment with mortality and other clinical outcomes among obese patients. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study in a large Israeli integrated health fund covering 54% of Israeli citizens with less than 1% turnover of members annually. Obese adult patients who underwent bariatric surgery between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2014, were selected and compared with obese nonsurgical patients matched on age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes, with a final follow-up date of December 31, 2015. A total of 33 540 patients were included in this study. Exposures: Bariatric surgery (laparoscopic banding, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, or laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy) or usual care obesity management only (provided by a primary care physician and which may include dietary counseling and behavior modification). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome, all-cause mortality, matched and adjusted for BMI prior to surgery, age, sex, socioeconomic status, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and smoking. Results: The study population included 8385 patients who underwent bariatric surgery (median age, 46 [IQR, 37-54] years; 5490 [65.5%] women; baseline median BMI, 40.6 [IQR, 38.5-43.7]; laparoscopic banding [n = 3635], gastric bypass [n = 1388], laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy [n = 3362], and 25 155 nonsurgical matched patients (median age, 46 [IQR, 37-54] years; 16 470 [65.5%] women; baseline median BMI, 40.5 [IQR, 37.0-43.5]). The availability of follow-up data was 100% for all-cause mortality. There were 105 deaths (1.3%) among surgical patients during a median follow-up of 4.3 (IQR, 2.8-6.6) years (including 61 [1.7%] who underwent laparoscopic banding, 18 [1.3%] gastric bypass, and 26 [0.8%] sleeve gastrectomy), and 583 deaths (2.3%) among nonsurgical patients during a median follow-up of 4.0 (IQR, 2.6-6.2) years. The absolute difference was 2.51 (95% CI, 1.86-3.15) fewer deaths/1000 person-years in the surgical vs nonsurgical group. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality among nonsurgical vs surgical patients were 2.02 (95% CI, 1.63-2.52) for the entire study population; by surgical type, HRs were 2.01 (95% CI, 1.50-2.69) for laparoscopic banding, 2.65 (95% CI, 1.55-4.52) for gastric bypass, and 1.60 (95% CI, 1.02-2.51) for laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. Conclusions and Relevance: Among obese patients in a large integrated health fund in Israel, bariatric surgery using laparoscopic banding, gastric bypass, or laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy, compared with usual care nonsurgical obesity management, was associated with lower all-cause mortality over a median follow-up of approximately 4.5 years. The evidence of this association adds to the limited literature describing beneficial outcomes of these 3 types of bariatric surgery compared with usual care obesity management alone.